The Gulf could have a storm on its hands — as soon as today.
The National Hurricane Center continued to watch an area of rain and storms organize in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday morning and said a tropical or subtropical storm is “likely” to form later today or tonight.
Then it could head toward the northern Gulf Coast and bring wind and rain to the area as soon as Friday or Saturday.
A storm has to have winds of at least 39 mph and a defined center of circulation to get a name. The next name on the list is Nestor.
The hurricane center said an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
The disturbance was located over the Bay of Campeche on Thursday morning but appeared more organized and was producing winds to near tropical storm force, the hurricane center said.
Conditions will be favorable for continued strengthening, and Nestor could be born later today or tonight as it moves northeastward over the western Gulf.
Name or no name, the storm could bring heavy rain, gusty winds and rough seas to the northern or northeastern Gulf Coast.
That heavy rain could spread inland over the Southeast as well, the hurricane center said.
This storm could end up being a subtropical or hybrid system, according to the National Weather Service in Mobile.
A subtropical storm isn’t a fully tropical system but has some of those features.
Forecasters there noted that forecast models are varying in the eventual track and timing of the system — but as of early Thursday areas along the Florida Panhandle were looking most likely for landfall.
“Keep in mind though there still remains a great deal of uncertainty in the eventual track as the disturbance has still not developed a low level center ... so inherently there will be more error at this point in the model tracks, and the model forecast will undoubtedly change as the system develops,” the weather service said.
Forecasters noted that if it is a subtropical system “rain and wind impacts will possibly extend far from the center," which means rain -- perhaps beneficial drought-busting rain -- could be possible in parts of Alabama over the weekend.
The system is expected to continue to track northeastward and clear out of the area possibly by late Sunday.
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts until Nov. 30.
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