Research by Winmydreamhome.com (WMDH), the house competition run by London property developers Misuma, has looked at the potential cost of homeownership for a baby born today.
With the average first-time buyer aged 30 years old, WMDH looked at the current average first-time buyer house price and how this has changed historically, before forecasting house price growth based on the interpolation of historic data over the next 30 years.
Today across Britain, first-time buyers are paying £193,194 on average to get on the ladder but this could climb to £482,741 over the next three decades based on historical trends – an increase of 150%.
This increase would be highest across England, climbing 160% from an average cost of £206,018 today to £535,340 in 2049. The average FTB could be paying £278,468 to get on the Welsh ladder in 30 years, a 100% increase, while Scotland would be the most ‘affordable’, up 67% to £203,760 from £122,148.
Despite a current period of problematic price growth due to Brexit, London would remain the most unaffordable region of Britain by some way. The average FTB in London currently pays £410,084 to get a foot on the ladder but should prices maintain their growth based on historical trends, this cost could spiral to almost £1.5m by 2049 – an increase of 259%.
The South East would see FTBs pay a hefty £731,631 in 2049, joined in the £700k club by the East of England (£728,874). The South West would be home to an average FTB cost of just over half a million pounds, while the East and West Midlands would hit £405,945 and £397,741 respectively.
The North West, Yorkshire and the Humber and the North East would be the most affordable but would still see FTBs paying between £160k-£291k for their first home.
Marc Gershon of Winmydreamhome.com, said: “A scary prospect but one that could materialise if we fail to address the lack of affordable housing being delivered, the attack on buy-to-let landlords restricting rental stock and the failure of wages to keep pace with property prices.
“The tough task facing current home buyers is well documented but for those born today, the task of getting on the ladder could be nigh on impossible.
For many, competitions like win my dream home are a bit of fun in this day and age, fast forward 30 years and they could be the only realistic option for the majority when it comes to securing some bricks and mortar.”
| Location | Current FTB house price (2019) | Future FTB house price (2049) | Change (%) |
| Great Britain | £193,194 | £482,741 | 150% |
| England | £206,018 | £535,340 | 160% |
| Wales | £139,436 | £278,468 | 100% |
| Scotland | £122,148 | £203,760 | 67% |
| London | £410,084 | £1,473,551 | 259% |
| South East | £256,636 | £731,631 | 185% |
| East of England | £241,704 | £728,874 | 202% |
| South West | £210,212 | £516,617 | 146% |
| East Midlands | £161,703 | £405,945 | 151% |
| West Midlands | £164,642 | £397,741 | 142% |
| North West | £137,461 | £291,366 | 112% |
| Yorkshire and the Humber | £139,206 | £287,914 | 107% |
| North East | £109,306 | £164,592 | 51% |
| Future house price predicted using SPSS program based on historical FTB house price data and a projection period of 30 years. | |||
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