“The nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master and deserves one.” – Alexander Hamilton
A recent poll revealed if the United States were invaded, 55% of those polled stated they would flee the United States rather than fight to defend it. Naturally, the percentage of those who would flee was greatest among Democrats and lowest among Republicans. (That three-quarters of the Democrats would flee is unsurprising as that party is split 3:1 between grifters and dupes, and grifters always run when their grift ends.) Some people found that discouraging. I did not; rather the opposite. While only 55% staying and fighting might be lower than it was 70 to 50 years ago, it is certainly consistent with historical percentages – and maybe a little higher.
Only 30% of the population was willing to fight for America during the Wars of American Independence. The percentage might have been higher by the War of 1812, but not as high as 50%. Many fled to the interior to avoid the war, and the war was so unpopular in New England that it was preparing to secede from the Union and sign a separate peace with Great Britain. During the American Civil War, the percentage of those willing to fight and die to preserve the Union (or abolish slavery) probably never approached 55%. The number in the South willing to fight and die to preserve the Confederacy was even lower. Draft evasion was sky-high in parts of the South to the point where draft evaders were taking to the high timber and forming armed bands to resist conscription.
Polls often do not reflect what people actually do when push comes to shove. The decision to flee is a rational one. But when the fight starts decisions are not made rationally. (As Jerry Pournelle said in one of his essays a rational army would run — but they rarely do.) You stand and fight for reasons that are not rational; for pride, or because “the women are watching” (ignore what is said about toxic masculinity – women find men who fight hot), or just out of sheer cussedness (nobody is going to run me off my land / tell me what to do).
Certainly two months ago if you had asked most people in this country whether those in Ukraine would stand and fight if Russia invaded they would have said the Ukrainians would run. I suspect if you had asked most Ukrainians that they would have said, “Are you crazy? We’d get out of town before the Russians arrived.” And yet, when the bear came over the mountain, a significant fraction of the population chose to take up arms. Despite the lack of training, they manned the barricades. That’s stupid, but it’s very human.
Was it 55%? I don’t know. But all you have to do is look at the situation map to realize the percentage was large enough to get Br’er Putin well and truly stuck to the Tar Baba Yar.
My question is this? Do you really believe residents of the United States, if rallied by a charismatic leader (or even by a steady, non-charismatic leader) would not rise in similar numbers if we were invaded? That the good ol’ boys of the country or even the urban gang bangers would not take of the sport of plinking CCP soldiers or Ruskies or whatever chose to come over the border to occupy America? That the American working class would sit by passively?
I do not. Yes, I could see many opportunists and grifters making common cause with the enemy. It has always been so, even in America. But it would not take 55% actively resisting to make the United States a bigger trap than trying to occupy Ukraine. Even percentages as low as 25% would make it impossible. But should the United States be invaded, I suspect many of those who said they would run would choose to stay and fight instead. I do not think the United States is as ready to prefer disgrace to danger as many in this country believe.
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